It is a few days after the 2016 US Presidential election, the dust is starting to settle and the media has been filled with a large amount of hand-wringing and dire predictions. Symptoms of shock, disbelief, denial, anger abound, while acceptance seems to be taking a little longer. Less than 12 hours after the results were clear, despite a beautiful sunny morning when I was out jogging, my head was filled with a hundred thoughts of things that might go wrong with this new presidency. (Apparently, a lot of other people were doing the same thing). But this is too easy I thought to myself, the list of possible problems seemed nearly endless, and quite depressing to boot, not at all in keeping with the beautiful sunrise I was watching.
I decided to challenge myself to find some things that could be made better under Donald Trump’s presidency. I made a list of a dozen significant items that could or should improve, and then I opened it up again four days later to see if I still believed them. I do. My original list is below, with one new item I saw in the media added in the interim – so now it’s a baker’s dozen.
- The new American government can efficiently design and approve policies and programs. With majority control of all three houses, typical barriers of vetoes, minority governments, split houses, unwilling bipartisan participants do not exist as excuses. If this government wants something done, they should get it done. (Often, no decision is the worst decision.)
- Keystone Pipeline will probably get built, sooner and more likely than the other domestic pipeline options available. That will provide a much-needed economic boost to Canada as a producer of natural resources during the next 5-10 years. (Yes I still believe in global warming and carbon tax but in the meantime, we need time and money to develop solutions as we evolve off fossil fuels.)
- Market Research polling will improve. Pretty obviously, the statistical gurus were way off in their predictions this time, and these are generally smart people who want to know why things happen so they can predict better. I am really confident that there is a lot of learning to be had, they will understand it, and better research tools (for all applications) will be the result. This is not a trivial improvement in my opinion.
- Canada’s post secondary education system wins in three ways. International students who would have gone to the USA will now see Canada as a favourable option. These students are the best and brightest, increasing the raw talent in our student pools, the fees they pay as demand increases offsetting overall operating costs for Colleges and Universities, and the ability of Canada to attract the best international faculty who might also find the USA less attractive now. Not to mention, when these international students and faculty choose to make Canada their long-term home, Canada gains fabulous people with great talents.
- American elections could change. Both parties lost control of much of the nominating and election process, they know it and did not like it. Honestly, you should want to vote for the candidate you like best, not the lesser or two evils between the two most disliked candidates. I would love to see some positive evolution in the vitriolic chaos. Donald Trump basically created (or reinvented) a new party inside the Republicans, getting elected in-spite of the status quo wishes of both incumbent parties. He did so, in two years, versus generations for Libertarians, Greens and Independents. (I know, I know, “at what cost…?” but at least he got things moving.)
- The scab has been ripped off simmering discontent for a huge portion of the American people. While the world focused on the marvels of the new economy, technology and more, the millions of abandoned workers whose jobs were automated, exported or just no longer needed were left behind as detritus, with little government attention to how they support themselves and society for the rest of their lives. Well, in this election, they represented half the voters making themselves heard and you can bet both parties will pay attention to them in the next election. (Actually, this is a fairly socialist need to help the less fortunate in the USA, and whatever party wins the next election is going to offer them some benefits.)
- Canada will be forced to develop more international trade relations, reducing our dependency on the USA. Doing business with our neighbour has been fairly easy and beneficial compared to developing new partners. But, if things get tougher thanks to President-elect Trump, guess what, we will need to invest lots of effort forging new deals with many countries. In the long term, we will have a stronger, diversified trade portfolio. In the short term, we will need to work our butts off to achieve it. (Our recent trade deal with Europe proves Canada can do it, but we could become a lot more proficient in the process.)
- The US Federal government should experience less waste, corruption, pork barreling and inefficiency. Donald Trump promised to bring a more business like focus to government operations. Washington could benefit from this as much as any government, let’s see if the new president can deliver and measure it. (If so, there might be ideas and practices to help our governments get better too.)
- Proves once again that almost anything is possible in the USA. I’m not just talking about a reality TV star underdog beating the establishment system, but for first ladies as well. Melania Trump is only the second foreign born first lady ….ever. The first, Louisa Adams, was born (in England), before the USA even existed. This new first lady actually understands (and succeeded) immigrating to a new country, learning the language and customs before achieving one of the most influential positions in the country. What an opportunity to have someone in the White House who trod the immigrant path herself, we could have high expectations of her.
- Bring some fairness or balance back into global defense and aid spending. The USA is acknowledged (for a variety of reasons) to spend more than their share of GDP on global defense and international infrastructure or aid. Other countries, Canada included, spend much less than their agreed commitments, particularly in defense. Not only did we have a free ride for many years, we did not bother to appreciate those who were covering our shortfall. Maybe it’s time for a number of countries to step up to some forgotten obligations.
- Donald Trump will now be judged by results, not promises. Before he was elected, he could (maybe did) promise almost anything. Guess what, now he is elected, the rubber hits the road and he needs to show real results. When your vote comes from a discontented electorate backlash, the honeymoon period is going to be very short. Now begins a period of accountability instead of rhetoric, so watch carefully. Initially, if he spends on infrastructure as promised, Canada will probably experience some lift with the updraft as we always do when the US economy rises.
- Reduced Coal consumption. That’s right, I believe President-elect Trump has stated that he wants to accelerate energy independence through gas fracking. The jury may be out on harm versus benefits of fracking, but the GHG harm of coal is undisputed versus natural gas. Gas will get cheaper in the USA, coal will become less competitive and less used.
- Increased consequence risks for many malicious parties around the world. Despot governments, terrorist organizations and criminal entities operating around the world, have known until now, that the strongest intelligence, police and military power (USA) will behave per established diplomatic protocol and precedent. In the future, who knows what Donald Trump might do? While that uncertainty is a worry for many of the “good guys”, I expect it might be a worry for many of the “bad guys” too, since there is no telling what the new sheriff might do. (He may not be using Marquis of Queensbury rules.)
- Offsetting Canada’s brain drain to the USA. No doubt about it, the USA has attracted many of Canada’s most talented professionals for a variety of reasons. The new regime in the USA is one more reason for them to think about coming home or staying here in the first place. It is a complicated decision process to immigrate, but this will help.
I’m not saying there are not a lot of reasons to worry about what might go wrong for the USA in the next few years, but that ship has sailed, so I’m focused on some things that could go right, for Canada, the US and elsewhere both in business and socially.
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